There’s an American colloquialism which says, “It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings.” In sports the phrase is often used to urge fans to stay with the game even when their favorite team is behind either in the late minutes or moments of the game or there’s a big difference in points, goals or runs in the early going of the contest. While the origin of the term is itself contested, it’s use has become rather common. It was a mantra for Mac enthusiasts during the late 90′s when the Mac v. PC contest appeared to be over.

On my personal blog Posts At Eventide, I’ve stated the iPad is such a significant product release Apple in essence has turned back the hands of time. In 1995 the Windows OS began to capture an overwhelming percentage of the PC market not because it was an excellent update to Windows 3.11 but because Apple stumbled in the migration from Macs with Motorola 680X0 processors to the PowerPC platform. Apple’s executive team at the time miscalculated demand for PowerPC Macs and was overconfident in the value of the Apple brand name to deliver sales at high prices and fat profit margins on older technology.

Fifteen years later, Apple represents perhaps the most stunning corporate turnaround story in US history. Since the return of Steve Jobs to the helm at Apple the value of the company has increased by over $200 billion. The resurgence in Mac sales that started with  the release of the original Bondi blue iMac, was accelerated by the development and release of Mac OS X and has been sustained by the success of Apple’s popular line of laptop computers has placed Apple back among the top five PC makers in the United States when measured by unit sales volume. The company’s domestic and global share of overall PC industry operating profits is even greater than the Mac’s unit sales and market share would otherwise suggest.

However, what kicked Apple’s revenue growth and earnings into high gear are two lines of products that were introduced in the first decade of the new millennium – The Apple iPod and the Apple iPhone. For all of the Mac’s newfound success, it’s the two lines of handheld products that boosted Apple to the top tier of America’s most successful corporate enterprises. But it’s a new product, to be released this Saturday, that will once and for all rewrite American technology history. That product is the Apple iPad.

The Apple iPad comes to market this week aggressively priced from the start with an established eco-system in place offering apps, games and entertainment content. It’s a revolutionary device that will transform the way in which we access and consume digital content. It’s a product that isn’t going to so much topple the Windows PC and its dominance in the operating system market as much as it will destroy the economic underpinnings that sustain the Windows PC market. From app developers to book, newspaper and magazine publishers, the economic groundswell building under the iPad’s launch suggests explosive sales for the iPad from the moment the product moves into the market.

The Macintosh is arguably the most successful line of personal computers when measured in economic value to the manufacturer. While most consider the Windows PC the dominant player in the game, few have chosen to notice the growth in Macintosh sales and profits since the Mac’s Intel transition that began with the release of the first Intel iMac in early 2006. By the end of this calendar year Apple may realize more revenue on a quarterly basis than its arch rival Microsoft and within a year Apple’s market cap will surpass the market cap of that company. For those who took their eyes off the contest, they might be surprised to see Apple, from an economic perspective, has retaken the lead. While the iPad isn’t going to replace the Windows PC, iPhone OS devices, including the iPad, will supplant it as the most popular platform for personal computing and communications.

In the coming weeks The Other Mac Blog‘s Colum O’Dwyer will explore the Apple iPad from a user and technology perspective. I’ll be back each week with a look at the economic significance of the iPad to the industries that support it.

Together, from different perspectives, we’ll reveal why, for the Windows PC era, the fat lady has begun to sing.

Building on the success of more than 75 million iPhone OS-equipped handsets already sold, the Apple iPad becomes available at retail April 3rd. Daniel Tello (aka Deagol) estimates about 240,000 pre-orders have been placed through Friday. Apple 2.0 is reporting new pre-orders for the tablet-sized device will ship no earlier than April 12th and the chance to reserve an iPad for April 3rd purchase at Apple retail stores has disappeared from Apple’s Web site. The iPad’s economic era has begun with a bang and demand for the device will only accelerate as product becomes available at retail stores.

With publications, including News Corp.’s Wall Street Journal, expected to announce digital versions specifically for the iPad and The Other Mac Blog‘s curious discovery on CBS.com’s site Wednesday night, Apple’s newest product is emerging as much of an economic force in the media industries as it is a new hardware device. Newspaper and magazine publishers view the Apple iPad as a new avenue for content consumption and can offer subscriptions absent to costs of print and delivery. Publishers of electronic books view Apple as providing a financially attractive distribution arrangement based on an agency sales model that allows publishers more influence on pricing and with Apple taking a 30% distribution fee on sales rather than a larger portion of the ebook retail price.

This morning AppleInsider posted a report suggesting Apple is moving quickly to provide  iPhone OS app developers fully integrated advertising services following the company’s purchase of Quattro Wireless in early January.

In addition to selling a tablet-sized iPhone OS device, Apple will be leveraging its newest hardware product line for revenue from advertising services as well as distribution fees from the sales of higher-priced apps designed specifically for the iPad. We expect sales of more than five million iPads in the six months remaining in Apple’s fiscal year. However, revenue from advertising services and other iPad-related sources will add significantly to the company’s return on each iPad sold.

The Other Mac Blog will be following Apple’s revenue growth from iPad handset sales and other iPad-related sources as the product sales begin one week from today.

There’s much discussion and debate on the Web about how many Apple iPads have been pre-ordered. If Daniel Tello (a/k/a Deagol) is accurate in his Web order count, by Monday about 200,000 iPads will have been pre-ordered through Apple’s online store. Deagol’s count does not include iPads reserved for purchase and pick-up at Apple’s retail store locations.

Looking beyond the iPad’s April 3rd release, it’s content that will ramp iPad purchases more than the product’s tech specs and lower-than-expected retail price. News reports indicate Apple is aggressively pursuing content deals to bring TV episodes to the iPad at the cost of $.99 and major magazine publishers are lining up to sell subscriptions for the tablet-sized device.

In all of the talk about the iPad, little is mentioned about the opportunities for textbook publishers to move sales from print editions to digital distribution. Apple is offering schools discounts on the iPad when purchased in bundles and publishers are lining up to exploit the device as a means to reduce costs, increase margins and enhance the content viewing experience in ways that can not be accomplished in paper print.

The now ubiquitous iPod had a relatively slow sales start following its original release in 2001. Sales accelerated following release of iTunes for Windows and the opening of the iTunes music store. The Apple iPad is coming to market with over 150,000 iPhone OS apps available, a version of Apple’s iWork productivity suite tailored for the product and an iTunes iBookstore that will rival the e-book offerings of both Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.

In evaluating the prospects for the Apple iPad’s success, one much look beyond the tech specs and focus on the content that will drive product adoption and push unit sales.  If the iPod’s sales history is an indicator, it’s the availability of content that will determine whether or not the latest Apple product is a global sales success.

On my personal blog Posts At Eventide I’ve recently posted a new 12-month price target for Apple (Ticker Symbol: AAPL) of $384 per share. This estimate looks all the better with early pre-orders for the Apple iPad reported as very strong.

For the fiscal year ending in September, I expect Apple to report revenue between $57 billion and $61 billion and earnings per share between $13.75 and $14.25. The Apple iPad will push reported revenue and earnings closer to the upper end of my estimates.

The iPad is now the early leader in a new generation of tablet-style devices. It’s entering the market with over 150,000 low-cost/no-cost apps available and the device will cause Apple to swing open the doors of its new iTunes iBookstore. It’s not only the device sales that will push Apple’s revenue and earnings higher, it’s also the sales of accessories and content for the iPad that will help vault Apple’s revenue and earnings to another year of record results.

For example, the base model iPad is offered at $499. Add to the purchase two years of AppleCare coverage ($99), an iPad Case ($39) and an external keyboard and dock ($69) and the customer checks out of Apple’s online store with a sub-total purchase of $706, investing about 40% more than the cost of the device itself. These additional product and service purchases are much of what sustains Apple’s high gross margins and high revenue yield from the company’s customers. Add again to the purchase of the device and accessories the value of customer purchases of music and movies, books and apps and it’s easy to see the iPad is much than a hardware device. It becomes an active revenue stream for Apple.

Factoring iPad sales and related revenue into Apple’s revenue and earnings forecast becomes a numerical delight. If early reports prove accurate, iPad pre-orders of the WiFi + 3G versions of the device (starting at $629) represent a significant percentage of sales. ASPs (average selling prices) for the iPad will move well above $600 per unit.

For the sake of discussion we’ll assume Apple will sell three million iPads in the final six months of the company’s fiscal year. At an average selling price of $600, iPad sales would add $1.8 billion in revenue this fiscal year and accompanying sales of accessories and services would add even more.

There’s much talk the Apple iPad will cannibalize some sales of other Apple products including  the iPhone, iPod touch and the MacBook line of portable computers. More likely the increase in foot traffic to the Apple retail stores due to interest in the iPad and the appeal of this device to consumers that don’t currently own a Mac or an iPhone will more than offset sales that will migrate from other Apple products to the iPad.

Tim Cook, Apple’s Chief Operating Officer, recently stated over 50% of Mac sales at Apple’s retail store locations are to consumers switching from Windows. The increased exposure to Apple products due to high iPad demand will have a net positive impact on both iPhone and portable Mac sales. In all, I expect the iPad to add directly and indirectly $3 billion or more to Apple’s revenue in the final six months this fiscal year through the sales of iPads, iPad accessories and services, content sales revenue and the positive impact the device will have on the sales of other Apple hardware devices.

On Friday Apple announced the release date for the new Apple iPad. Pre-orders for the Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi + 3G versions of the iPhone OS-equipped tablet device will begin March 12th for US customers  and retail availability of the Wi-Fi version starts on Saturday, April 3rd in the United States. The US and select international locations will see both versions of the iPad available by late April.

In response to this announcement Apple’s share price rose 3.91% or $8.24 to close the trading week at $218.95 per share, an all-time high for the maker of Macs, iPods, iPhones and the new iPad. In intra-day activity on Friday the shares traded as high as $219.70. Friday’s closing price pushed the company’s market cap to $198.54 billion, placing the company among the most highly valued enterprises with shares traded on US exchanges.

No doubt Friday’s share price gains came, in part, from the dispelling of rumors production problems would push back the US release of the Wi-Fi iPad until mid to late April. However, the nearly four percent jump in the share price also evidences market confidence the Apple iPad will be favorably received by US customers.

With about 150,000 apps already available, the corresponding opening of the iTunes iBookstore and editions of Apple’s popular iWork productivity components designed specifically for the device, ample content will be available at release to support the interests of buyers. Magazines by subscription as well as major news papers offering apps for the iPad will increase the product’s allure.

At Friday’s closing price Apple’s shares (Ticker Symbol: AAPL) are trading at about 21 times 12-month trailing earnings. This p/e multiple is well below the company’s current pace of earnings growth and suggests the shares, trading near $220, may be at the low end of the rational pricing range.

While the iPad will most likely not deliver unit sales results initially on the scale of the Apple iPhone or iPod touch, this iPhone OS-equipped device expands the universe of products capable of using apps sold through the iTunes store and expands the iPhone OS eco-system for developers and peripherals makers.

The Apple iPad will begin shipping early in Apple’s 3rd fiscal quarter and the sales results will positively impact revenue and earnings for that fiscal quarter and the balance of the fiscal year.

On Friday, Charlie Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Company, issued an advisory to the firm’s clients raising the target price on Apple (Ticker Symbol: AAPL) to $280 per share from $235 per share.

Citing strong growth in Mac and iPhone sales, the firm sees continued sales strength in both product lines following Apple’s record-setting December quarter. In raising the target price for AAPL, the company sees both Mac and iPhone sales growing faster than previously estimated.

Notable in Mr. Wolf’s remarks is his bullish sentiment on the soon-to-be-released Apple iPad. In addition to sales to consumers, Mr. Wolf suggests the iPad could increase Apple’s presence in the K-12 education market and become a popular device for textbook reading among students on college campuses.

On Friday AAPL ended the week at $200.38 per share, above the psychologically important $200 per share mark but below the all-time high of $215.59 set in January. Needham & Company’s revised price target of $280 per share is roughly 40% higher than Friday’s closing price.

Analysts and investment firms often publish target prices for the benefit of clients. A target price represent the firm’s estimate of the highest price at which a share should trade before becoming overvalued based on estimates of the company’s performance and taking into consideration overall market conditions. Target prices are usually set for a 12-month period and are frequently revised based on a company’s stronger than expected revenue and earnings in the most recent quarterly periods or deterioration in a company’s performance.

Needham & Company has raised its price target based in part on Apple’s results for the three-month period ended in December and in part on the prospects of the Apple iPad becoming another successful product for the maker of Macintosh computers, iPhones and the iPod line of digital music players.

With the recent announcement of the Apple iPad and its e-book reader capabilities, many of us wonder if the iPad will dominate the e-book reader market similar to the way the Apple iPod dominates the market for digital music players.

During the iPad introduction presentation on January 27th, Apple CEO Steve Jobs announced Apple has sold over 250 million iPods since the product line debuted in 2001. Since its initial release the iPod has undergone a continuing series of upgrades that have added greater functionality and bettered the user experience.  This continuing cycle of product upgrades helps Apple remain ahead of the competition and has forced competitors to improve their products as well.

The introduction of the Apple iPad is already bringing changes to the e-book reader market. The iPad offers a 9.7-inch, LED backlit IPS color display that creates a crystal clear viewing experience. The leading e-book readers on the market offer shades-of-grey screens for reading books and a process called E-ink to simulate the traditional look of ink on paper. While the recently announced Apple iPad appears to have technological advantages over the leading e-book readers, how will Apple maintain these apparent advantages as competitors innovate in response to the iPad?

So far Apple and the makers of the leading e-book readers such as Amazon and Barnes & Noble are taking different approaches to the e-book reader market. The Apple iPad offers much more than e-book reader capabilities. This is a calculated risk for Apple because the company is positioning a multi-function digital device to compete with dedicated e-book readers. For example, the iPad’s superior touchscreen technology, the color display and its design for multiple purposes such as Web surfing, video and music playback and games, means the iPad will have lesser use time between charges than dedicated shades-of-grey e-book readers like the Amazon Kindle. Active iPad users may need to recharge their device daily versus the Kindle which can span a week of active use between battery recharge sessions.

The Apple iPad has a 9.7-inch screen making the display area comparable to the larger of the two Kindle models. Using the iPad’s touchscreen one can easily move from page to page similar to the way we turn pages on a paper book. A person can hold the iPad with their hands in the most comfortable position they choose. Kindle users and users of the Barnes & Noble Nook press a button to move from page to page. To accomplish page turning comfortably one must hold the devices in pretty much a preset position.

The Kindle and the Nook both offer limited 3G connectivity for purchasing and downloading books. The iPad will have full 3G connectivity for Web surfing and other tasks, but only on the more expensive models. Further, Amazon and Barnes & Noble offer free limited 3G connectivity for book purchases. The iPad’s 3G models will require a pre-paid monthly contract for all 3G services including book purchases through the iTunes Bookstore. However, the Apple iPad and Barnes & Noble Nook come equipped with Wi-Fi capabilities, but not the Amazon Kindle.

Using the Apple iPad in landscape view, the reader can see and read two pages of text similar to the way we open and read paper books today. For those of us transitioning from paper-based books to e-books, the landscape mode may be more intuitive and familiar than a one-page view offered on the leading devices.

The opening of the iTunes iBookstore will allow Apple to compete with Amazon for e-book sales. Several major publishers have already signed contracts with Apple to provide e-books through Apple’s new book store. Amazon and Barnes & Noble are world leaders in e-book sales and Apple will need to compete with these established leaders in the e-book market. To push sales of e-books through the iTunes Bookstore, an iBook app will be pre-installed on all iPads sold.

Steve Jobs said during the iPad’s introduction event Apple was building on Amazon’s success in the e-book market. The iBook app for the Apple iPad will make it almost effortless to move from e-book purchase to e-book reading in virtually no time at all,  matching the ease-of-purchase process for content for both the Kindle and the Nook.

Prices for the Apple iPad begin at $499 for a Wi-Fi only version. This price contrasts with $489 for the best equipped Kindle Amazon now offers. The least expensive Kindle costs $259 for a shades-of-grey, 6-inch Kindle and a 6-inch Nook is offered at a similar price.

Contrary to popular notions the Apple iPod was not an overnight success. Sales began to skyrocket following release of the Windows version of iTunes and the opening of the iTunes music store. Unlike the iPod which was released before the opening of the iTunes stores, the iPad will come to market with over 140,000 apps available for use and e-books and magazines immediately available for purchase through iTunes.

Competing in the e-book reader market against Amazon and Barnes & Noble will provide challenges for Apple. For consumers interested in a dedicated e-book reader at the lowest possible price both the lower-cost versions of the Kindle and Nook may be a more attractive purchase. For consumers interested in the many different things the iPad can do and desire a world-class e-book reader, there’s no  real choice available other than the new Apple iPad.

There’s no doubt Apple will continue to innovate and the Apple iPad will undergo a continuing series of upgrades similar to the path of innovation the iPod has followed.  The question that remains is whether or not Amazon and Barnes & Noble will innovate and improve their products to compete as a multiple-function device similar to the Apple iPad or focus on delivering better but limited function e-book readers to compete with the iPad primarily on price. For all the iPad offers, more expensive versions of the Kindle and Nook should they retain limited functionality primarily as e-book readers may not find much of a market.

The iPad will most likely outsell the Kindle and the Nook combined soon after its initial release next month. Whether or not the iPad will outsell the Kindle and the Nook among consumers seeking primarily an e-book reader will be determined in time.

One of the more noteworthy yet least mentioned aspects of the new Apple iPad is that it runs on an Apple designed and Apple branded chip called the A4. This system-on-a-chip or SOC provides Apple with the means to power the Apple iPad efficiently and extend battery life for several hours beyond what might otherwise be the limits for a larger touchscreen device performing graphic intensive tasks such as games and powering video and music playback.

In 2008 Apple purchased a chip design firm named PA Semi. Since the acquisition, the team from PA Semi have been working to develop custom chips at Apple for a new generation of devices. By designing chips in-house Apple frees itself from the chip release schedules of chip makers such as Intel and ARM and allows Apple to focus its chip development efforts on specific uses unique to the products for which the chips are designed.

There’s no shortage of competition in the handheld digital device market. The iPhone and iPod touch compete with a variety of devices including smartphones and handheld gaming devices from companies such as Sony and Nintendo. Since the release of the iPhone and its non-phone companion product the Apple iPod touch, Apple has shipped over 75 million combined units of these iPhone-OS equipped devices. Apple’s ability to grow its product market and further its leadership in the mobile device market requires the ability to maneuver quickly and release new and refreshed products on its own timetable, not the timetable of chip makers based on their chip product cycles and chip shipment schedules.

Apple’s decision to develop and manufacture its own chips for the iPad represents Apple’s first step in the release of commercial products encompassing its own chip designs. While it’s been noted by Intel that Apple has provided constructive input into the development of new chips destined for Apple’s line of Macintosh personal computers, the A4 chip in the forthcoming iPad provides Apple with certain competitive advantages.

The iPad is being released on Apple’s timetable, not a timetable dependent on the supply of unique chips for another source. The iPad’s extended battery life and the graphics power of the device are possible only through the custom chip for the product. From a competitive standpoint,  a custom chip design to enhance specific and desired functionality works to Apple’s advantage.

The Apple iPad will be competing with a variety of tablet devices from other PC makers and with e-book readers from Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Apple’s ability to design chips to meet performance expectations for video playback, game performance and use as an e-book reader positions the product in a class of its own.

The Apple iPad is also expected to further the iPhone OS-equipped device market and must function as both a new class of product and a product fully integrated with other Apple mobile device products such as the iPhone and the iPod touch and make use of the more than 140,000 apps already available for the iPhone OS platform. Due to its comparatively larger screen and the associated graphics power demands, this unique product required a unique system-on-a-chip design.

In the months to come we’ll discover whether or not Apple will be migrating its other iPhone OS-equipped products to company-designed chips. The Apple iPad’s success and the ability of the A4 chip to meet the performance expectations of users may influence Apple’s decisions concerning the development of custom chips for other Apple devices.

Shopping at a grocery store or a Costco outlet there’s an item one is apt to see. It’s not a food item or a beverage. It’s an iTunes Gift Card. The cards are popular with sellers because they are popular with consumers. There’s no value to the cards on display until purchased so there’s no cost to the seller except a modicum of store space. The seller makes a small margin on sales of the cards to consumers and the net purchase proceeds are sent to Apple.

Purchasing an iTunes Gift Card is essentially giving Apple an interest-free loan on the unused balance. That balance can only be spent at one place – the iTunes online store. From music to movies, to games and books, the Apple iTunes store has become the world’s largest legal distributor of music, the world’s largest distributor of apps and games for mobile handsets and may soon rival Amazon for leadership in the e-book sales market.

In all over twelve billion items have been downloaded from the iTunes store since its digital doors opened in 2003. Today Apple sells more than one billion songs every two hundred days and for every dollar spent at the Apple iTunes store, roughly thirty cents remains with Apple as a distribution or agency fee for facilitating the sale. In addition to iTunes Gift Card sales, Apple has over 125 million iTunes accounts tethered to credit cards for quick and easy online purchases.

When people are asked about the success of Apple products or asked about the prospects for success of a new Apple product such as the iPad, most mention success in terms of handset sales. Few consider the explosive growth Apple is experiencing in the sales of music, movies, apps, games and will experience selling e-books and subscriptions to digital versions of newspapers and magazines. Each Apple device sold is a conduit for sales of content through iTunes.

The iTunes store is essential to the success of Apple’s forthcoming iPad. From music to movies, from books to apps, what makes the product most attractive is the iTunes content it will allow users to consume. The iTunes store is a boon to Apple’s hardware product sales as much as each Apple device sold increases sales of content through iTunes.

This is among the reasons the Apple iPad will be an unmitigated success. Through the popularity of iTunes Gift Cards, Apple has created its own ubiquitous form of currency for use in enjoying the new device.

One of the initiatives that began in k-12 education in the early 2000s was the mobile computer lab. A rolling filing cabinet which holds enough laptops for every student in the class. This model was adopted because of the versatility that this provided as well as the ability to save space with out needing a large computer lab.  These stations often housed a projector and even the possibility of a wireless router which could be plugged into an ethernet jack in the wall. With the advent of the iPad educators may now be able to provide students with a mobile iPad lab. Imagine an airport extreme, a series of 20 Wi-Fi only iPads, a projector and one MacBook which all the devises sync with.

Custom applications to accompany textbooks, iTunes U and video podcasts, access to the web, word processing are just some of the options the iPad can provide the teacher with. In the k-5 educators could look into many applications that focus on simple math, spelling, and reading. The iPad will be able to provide teachers with a unique learning experience to combat children’s expectations for a graphic intensive learning experience.. The other attractive benefits  that this would provide is the utilization of a standard keyboard to learn to type but also the ease of use an onscreen keyboard provides.

Another important need in education that the iPad can fill a void in, is the realm of Special Education. One of the most popular devices utilized in special education is the Neo 2, formally the Dana Alphasmart. However, this provided the user with a difficult to navigate palm OS, and a B&W screen that you could see roughly two lines of text. Contrary to the iPads screen which will be nothing short of amazing. The applications, the interface, the size of the iPad all make it more attractive then the Neo 2, especially because of the sheer number of applications will be available to the user. This Neo 2 is neither pretty nor sleek and looks old fashioned. One unforeseen benefit that the iPad provides is a cool factor. While this is not the most important factor it will provide educators with, it certainly  will help with the phycological effects that students can feel when they are the only one using technology in the classroom. For students of all different varying disabilities technology often provides them with a way to keep up in class. Personally for my self I began using a iBook in class every day in 7th grade to help with my dyslexia, the benefits are impossible to measure. The use of the laptop still continues today as I continue in my junior year of college, however on the release of the iPad I will leave my laptop at home and venture to class with just an iPad.

Whether being utilized in a mobile classroom or by one student the iPad will certainly open up the doors for k-12 educators to reach students through the latest technology at a reasonable price. Imagine a student excited to go to class because he will be using the coolest new gadget on the block. The iPad has the ability to make learning fun again.